Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of African horse sickness virus from 2020 to 2060.

African horse sickness is a vector-borne, non-contagious and highly infectious disease of equines caused by African horse sickness viruses (AHSv) that mainly affect horses. The occurrence of the disease causes huge economic impacts because of its high fatality rate, trade ban and disease control costs. In the planning of vectors and vector-borne diseases like AHS, the application of Ecological niche models (ENM) used an enormous contribution in precisely delineating the suitable habitats of the vector. We developed an ENM to delineate the global suitability of AHSv based on retrospective outbreak data records from 2005 to 2019. The model was developed in an R software program using the Biomod2 package with an Ensemble modeling technique. Predictive environmental variables like mean diurnal range, mean precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean annual maximum temperature (oc), mean annual minimum temperature (oc), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), mean annual precipitation (mm), solar radiation (kj /day), elevation/altitude (m), wind speed (m/s) were used to develop the model. From these variables, solar radiation, mean maximum temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude and precipitation seasonality contributed 36.83%, 17.1%, 14.34%, 7.61%, and 6.4%, respectively. The model depicted the sub-Sahara African continent as the most suitable area for the virus. Mainly Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Malawi are African countries identified as highly suitable countries for the virus. Besides, OIE-listed disease-free countries like India, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia have been found suitable for the virus. This model can be used as an epidemiological tool in planning control and surveillance of diseases nationally or internationally.

Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures on Mosquito-Borne Diseases in 2020 in Queensland, Australia.

We describe the impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, Australia, during the first half of 2020. Implementation of restrictions coincided with an atypical late season outbreak of Ross River virus (RRV) characterized by a peak in notifications in April (1173) and May (955) which were greater than 3-fold the mean observed for the previous four years. We propose that limitations on human movement likely resulted in the majority of RRV infections being acquired at or near the place of residence, and that an increase in outdoor activities, such as gardening and bushwalking in the local household vicinity, increased risk of exposure to RRV-infected mosquitoes. In contrast, the precipitous decline in international passenger flights led to a reduction in the number of imported dengue and malaria cases of over 70% and 60%, respectively, compared with the previous five years. This substantial reduction in flights also reduced a risk pathway for importation of exotic mosquitoes, but the risk posed by importation via sea cargo was not affected. Overall, the emergence of COVID-19 has had a varied impact on mosquito-borne disease epidemiology in Queensland, but the need for mosquito surveillance and control, together with encouragement of personal protective measures, remains unchanged.